主题：Commitment or Discretion? An Empirical Investigation of Monetary Policy Preferences in China
主讲人：西南财经大学经济学院 刘定副教授
主持人：西南财经大学必发集团welcome欢迎光临 王文甫教授
时间：2019年6月18日12:00-13:10
地点：柳林校区格致楼811
主办单位：必发集团welcome欢迎光临 科研处
主讲人简介：
刘定，英国格拉斯哥大学经济学博士，现任西南财经大学经济学院副教授，还担任Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control，Journal of Macroeconomics, Economic Modelling等SSCI期刊的匿名审稿人，香港研究资助局 (RGC) 外审。研究领域为宏观经济学和货币经济学，成果见于Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control等刊物，主持或参与国家和省部级课题9项。
内容提要：
Despite the fact that China has become the second largest economy in the world, its monetary policy is yet to be understood by the outside observers. In this paper we estimate the policy preferences of China's central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian DSGE model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favour discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve had the Chinese central bank been able to commit.
尽管中国已成为世界第二大经济体，外界依然试图理解其货币政策。在这篇论文中，我们采用含微观基础的小型新凯恩斯模型来估计中国中央银行的政策偏好。在模型中，我们引入承诺或审慎两种类型以及1992年第二季度至2017年第四季度的中国宏观经济数据描述货币政策。贝叶斯模型对比揭示出数据支持审慎性货币政策。两种类型下分别估计出的损失函数权重表明首要政策目标是稳定价格，接下来是稳定产出和稳定利率。最后，我们通过反事实分析评估，如果中国中央银行能够做出承诺，宏观经济结果可以怎么提高。
